Today's Info - Onthenose Daily

Today's Info 13th December 2024 - 

Some old friends out today across the cards. I'm a bit disappointed with the prices this am so stakes are tempered.

Thanksforthehelp heads to Bangor and it's the right choice to go for this rather than Cheltenham the horse needs a confidence boost - albeit the race isn't a complete gimme.

I'd have been a heavy player at 11/2 or bigger, but I think they will win and raise sights afterwards. I wrote more about him when a NR the last day, capable and quirky.

At Cheltenham Doyen Quest is out again, smart and improving but I have to play Gowel Road again at the odds, this will suit and I'd have had an each way bet again at 7s or so - but here we are at double that, why might be clear once the tapes go up. A normal run means he will be 2nd again and at 14s it's a bet once more. Also I think Might

Mister Coffey is a long standing love of mine. A bet again now trying the mad X Country again, will go better for the first go and is overpriced, even allowing for the fragility of putting a head in front in tough tough assignments since forever.

Finally Shan Blue surely puts it altogether again today. Been well backed, good sign, seems to have been given a simple task after another pipe opener and lined up where others may not be. Small bet to keep him onside - would have been a bigger bet and if we get the late drift will be.

Today's Info - 

2.25 Cheltenham - Shan Blue 0.5pt Win - 7/2 General

3.00 Cheltenham - Mister Coffey 0.5pt Win - 5/1 General

3.35 Cheltenham - Gowel Road 0.5pt e/w - 14/1 General -

The Judge

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Today's Info 7th December 2024 - 

Might all be a waste of time to write up at length given the overnight weather forecast but if it's on we will be busy - and let's keep it brief.

Red Rookie might be ready to rock for Emma Lavelle and if so is handicapped to stroll home at Chepstow in the Handicap Chase at 12.27pm. Joe Anderson takes off 3lb, the ground will suit and unless really needing the run should be bang there at a decent price.

I want to take on Larchmont Lass at Sandown in the 12.40pm handicap hurdle as it's just a ridiculous price. Good Luck Charm gets a lovely starting point and 10lbs off from Chad Bament, this should be ideal, has some seriously good top handicap form and best to chance fresh.

Going to take on another Nicholls fav at Chepstow in the 1.37pm, I know that's often silly on a Saturday, but Good Risk At All is the better horse and I will be shocked if can't pick this lot up on return for Sam Thomas and the excellent Dylan Johnston. 

Bryony Frost comes to pilot Intense Raffles, the Irish National winner that landed us a great touch last year and gets a hurdles spin to start of this season's campaign at Navan. I don't think Thomas Gibney will have the horse cherry ripe, but that will be hardly necessary to figure and I think they can concede some weight and still enjoy themselves here. Wouldn't surprise to see this very well backed if racing goes ahead.  

King Turgeon and Chianti Classico should be fascinating over the know just a visual feast of the Grand National fences at Aintree, but neither look a fair price for a bet in the Becher.

Major Dundee is the wiser dart, looked to be right back to it behind Celebre d'Allen last time until hitting the final few cobwebs that remained from the break and I expect a big run especially when a few cry off here past 3miles. If it were the old style fences I'd be super confident but it's more of a pace track now, as long they aren't watching from too far back they can steam home, and Sam is a great booking even if he might have to skip breakfast at 10st 2lb.

Nick Schofield doesn't sit on many good ones anymore, but Thanksforthehelp surely has him praying for good news from the weather man in the morning. Fair to say more has been expected to date but the run behind Doyen Quest and Gowel Road will take this. So over to you Nick, keep this mildly frustrating sort interested and the race will be there.

Today's Info 

12.27 Chepstow - Red Rookie 0.75pt Win - 15/2 General ( 10s in places ) - NR

12.40 Sandown - Good Luck Charm 0.5pt e/w - 17/2 General 4 places - WINNER!!! Super stuff to roll home in front

1.37 Cheptsow - Good Risk At All 1pt Win - 4/1 General - NR

1.42 Navan - Intense Raffles 0.75pt e/w - 17/2 General 5 places - huge drift, midfield

2.07 Aintree - Major Dundee 0.5pt e/w - 16/1 General 4 places - NR

2.47 Chepstow - Thanksforthehelp 1pt Win - 9/2 General - NR

The Judge

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Today's Info 29th November 2024 - 

Right let's get into it. Fairyhouse, Newbury and Newcastle and it's decent but the old Hennessy is lacking a big name or two, shame but still a decent puzzle to solve.

We will try and go in time order. Zanndabad is a decent bet in a small field at Newcastle, not the most natural hurdler, but been smuggled, hidden and covered up through races for so long the idea of running in a field of less than two dozen horses will make him feel loose when he sees just the 5 others at the start. I suspect he wont see any of them at the post.

The best handicapped horse at the Henderson yard should dance in at Newbury in the handicap hurdle at 1.54pm - Impose Toi is very smart and would have claimed the Lanzarote with any semblance of a more attacking ride. So James Bowen over to you to prove that right and off the same mark 134 I suspect a stone or more shy of what he will end up this season.

I have a mad inkling that Ballee for the Hobbs team is super talented. Also I am quite certain the 5yo is also rather mental. The 2.25pm at Newbury is a tough assignment and I could make a case for Excelero, Jeriko De Reponet, Liari, Queens Gamble etc etc but if Ballee behaves I'd want to be on him, at the prices I will chance we get a decent run at them from the front end and Micheal Nolan sets sail for home early.

For the Hennessy I am going to side with Colonel Harry ( will have a small saver on Broadway Boy ) who steps up in trip here after suffering for some time on deeper ground at shorter. It's a weaker renewal than we might have hoped and you wouldn't deny Sam Brown a crack at this bunch of second season novices which connections are duly taking but Jamie Snowden has kept his charge exactly where they have wanted all the way to this assignment.

Everything to this point has been at too short a trip, and I expect there is a good bit of upside to come now. The comeback run was perfect in the Colin Parker at Carlisle, the Grade 1 efforts before that admirable without giving the horse any chance to figure at the business end. I'd be pretty sure connections are very hopeful indeed of repeating last years success in this with the ill-fated Datsalrightgino.

Over at Fairyhouse - hopefully they delay the start here a little - but Falcon Eight isn't spotted often over hurdles yet lines up on what will be decent ground for a very winnable handicap hurdle at 3.05pm with the pocket rocket jockey Sam Ewing booked up for Dermot Weld. If it was a flat race he'd win a distance, it isn't so he might only just win but that said he should be very much involved and is overpriced.

Back at Newcastle Frero Banbou was given a horror ride last time at Aintree when surely should have been let run on when hitting the front end. Ned Fox steps in here, takes off a few pounds from a reduced mark and they also tackle a bit of a trip. Will they get home on decent ground, I suspect they might and I also think they could be hitting the front a bit from home with the instruction to not look back and hit the accelerator. Worth chancing they stay there.

One day Petit Tonnerre will win, the finale at dusk on Hennessy day at Newbury might just be that moment. You'll get used to us keeping faith with the JP ones that have been so often lined up that they forget how to break the habit, the chap can win and should win here. An intriguing final wager of a very busy and fascinating Saturday.

Have a great day, enjoy the racing.

Today's Info

1.03 Newcastle - Zanndabad 0.5pt Win - 3/1 General - well backed, poor ride 2nd

1.54 Newbury  - Impose Toi 2pt Win - 10/3 General, 7/2 in places - WINNER!!! not even close to fully rev'd up returned 4s

2.25 Newbury - Ballee 0.5pt e/w - 14/1 General 4 places - misbehaved! Pulled up

3.00 Newbury - Colonel Harry 0.75pt e/w - 10/1 General 4 places - petrol ran out, or something amiss

3.05 Fairyhouse - Falcon Eight 0.5pt e/w - 14/1 General 5 Places - poor ride, ran on to the line from too far back

3.20 Newcastle - Frero Banbou 0.5pt e/w - 9/1 General 4 places - WINNER!!! Exactly as planned from Ned!

3.35 Newbury - Petit Tonnerre 0.5pt Win - 5/1 General - awful, never again, well maybe

The Judge

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Today's Info 25th November 2024 - 

Loved Fact To File yesterday, he drifted all day until near the off and served up a message to the division that it's a new era. He is the perfect racehorse, against some seriously good horses to do that with so much potential still unlocked. Gold Cup beckons.

Icare Allen was just allowed to get way too well handicapped, it might be it, we will likely go in again as he rises back up. Let's see.

Will Carver runs at Kempton today and we backed him on return from a wind op in October ( write up below ). Forgive that and he is a ridiculous price this afternoon. I am willing to do that and take the chance that they still have plenty to work with. 

Iberico Lord shouldn't be able to handle Gidleigh Park but it's a lovely clash to watch rather than bet in. He looks a chaser to fall in love with.

Today's Info 

Kempton 3.10 - Will Carver 0.75pt e/w - 20/1 General, 3 Places on offer - poor run, very well backed but never involved

The Judge

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Today's Info 24th November 2024 - 

Beauport was cracking yesterday, just outclass them and I wonder what the Twiston team will do next, that performance might stay under the radar given the nature of the race.

We got mixed fortunes with the rest - poor Patriotik coming down will hurt for a while - after last Saturday we could do with the luck turning, or just picking better jumpers!

Anyway I was more than happy to let Fact To File win the John Durkan at 2/1 or shorter which looked likely during the week but the drift this morning is making it impossible to leave alone. Those that listened to me all last year know what I feel about this horse ( possibly best I've seen since Dessie ), and at 7/2 where I think he is the best horse in the race, if not today, then 100% for the rest of the season he will prove it regardless we have to have a wager.

He is quicker than GDC and FoS - they are the only two than can hold a candle to him ability wise and if he is within touching distance, or more likely in front with a fence or so to go, then as long as he is fit he will surely win. It's hard to know into open company first time and he was beaten before slightly short of match fitness by inferior horses. He will need to be ready, at 7/2, and bigger over 4s on the machine let's find out anyway.

I've got funds on for the Gold Cup, and will increase it after today should he drift after being beaten. I suspect though he may just be heading the market. 

As we are here Icare Allen runs at Uttoxeter off 115, and should be fit. If he is and he can't win this then it is a sad decline from my being ultra confident at Cheltenham last March in the Pertemps Final. It could be it's over for him, but off a mark almost 30lbs lower I reckon this might be his last run should they not at least trouble the short Nicholls fav.

Today's Info

2.00 Uttox - Icare Allen 0.5pt Win - 4/1 General - WINNER!!! it's taken ages but...

2.25 Punchestown - Fact To File 1pt Win - 7/2 General - WINNER!!! The Gold Cup can be sent to Willie Mullins, just change the inscription to FTF!

The Judge

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Today's Info 23rd November 2024 - 

What a weekend if the weather keeps it all honest we are in for a treat.

You all know I love Patriotik for the Williams team after we were on for the first start of the season when just allowed to get cruising rather than fighting. There is a lot of upside and a big pot to aim at this afternoon at Haydock. I took some of the 25s and then 14s hoping, but I wasn't at all sure they would get in. Doyen Quest runs, and might be the only one that can handle what Patriotik has up the sleeve - fingers crossed the afterthought of coming here for Skelton's horse ( the other Skelton runner is also a player ) is not the blocker to Patriotik's imminent improvement and our wager! 

Anything above 7s is a nice each way play and that's easy to get - no doubt a raft of non runners and they go off rule 4'd and 4/1....! As long as it runs well ;-)

I don't think I've ever tipped Ahoy Senor in his career but I can't help fancying they might just win the Betfair Chase tomorrow after what was a very introductory first outing this term at Aintree in the Old Roan. I'd love to see Bravemansgame win but it would need the blinkers to do something as he has just lost a little bit after a few too many wars. 

Grey Dawning is a ridiculous price and Royale Pagaille will need more rain than they get surely? Not sure the rest are good enough bar Hewick and I'd say that they may skip it anyway in the morning.

Ahoy Senor is the right bet at the prices, I'd make them favourite on my tissue and therefore will happily chance the 11/2.

David Noonan is a good jockey, but if I get involved with his rides I am usually not impressed. His spin on Pepe Le Moko last time, when we were on, wasn't what I had hoped; if it was just the pipe opener then it was job well done. I think Jane Williams might have a very good day so I'm depending on David to let this one attack a few fences and get right into the race. 

Knight Of Allen is his other ride of interest and just like Pepe Le Moko there is a huge upside with the cobwebs now blown away in what was a lovely return at Uttoxeter. Up in trip and on handicap debut, this strapping sort is going to be fascinating.

Two Noonan and Williams runners in one day, a lot could go wrong but they are very likeable types and I fancy both strongly to be a good bit better than their current handicap perches.

At Punchestown a small bet so we don't miss any unannounced wedding from Cadatharla who is capable of winning whenever it suits. If it's today I wouldn't be shocked. The Morgiana is clas all together - I don't think State Man is up there with the greats but winning this would help the CV!

The whole world will likely be on Billy Lee Swagger in the 2.50pm and if the day is going well so will I but I'd have liked a little more in the price than the 11/2 or so available now.

Two small stabs at the 2.05pm at Ascot where Beauport is the classy one who should be ready to rock first time. Many of you know how much I love the horse and it took a while but landing the Midlands National last year was a great touch. Dom Of Mary is the sneaky one, there is a lot to love about this horse for David Bridgewater and I think they will win the Ultima at Cheltenham this March if the season goes to plan. To do that winning this or maybe the next run needs to be on the cards I suspect - they went for the wrong race last year.

It's a feast of bets, back tomorrow for the Sunday clashes and to count up the winnings?

Best of luck, enjoy the racing!

Today's Info - 

Haydock 1.15 - Knight Of Allen 0.75pt e/w - 12/1 General, 4 places ( 14s in places ) - big run, placed

Punchestown 1.35 - Cadatharla 0.5pt Win - 15/2 General - Gambled, drifted and PU!

Ascot 2.05 - Beauport 0.5pt Win - 6/1 General - WINNER!! Smart effort

Ascot 2.05 - Dom Of Mary 0.5pt e/w - 10/1 General  - scratchy and clearly not ready

Haydock 2.30 - Patriotik 1pt e/w - 9/1 General, 5 places ( 10s in places ) - fell

Haydock 3.30 - Ahoy Senor 0.75pt Win - 11/2 General - awful run, great race

Haydock 3.40 - Pepe Le Moko 0.75pt e/w - 10/1 General (4 places and 11s in places) - very poor effort, off the list maybe!

The Judge

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Today's Info 17th November 2024 - 

That type of day is what jumps racing can do to you, In Excelsis Deo and Champagne Twist coming down, the former would have won and I was delighted with the run up to that point. Gowel Road was excellent, I was wrong about Doyen, and we just have to take it onthenose, sorry chin.

Three bets today. 

Burdett Road surely takes a lot of stopping in the Greatwood, Dysart Enos maybe can do it, I doubt anything else can and we are on at 10s, so let's not have any more hard luck tales.

I like The Goffer in Ireland for the Troytown. Gordon Elliott has entered almost a dozen in it but I think I've narrowed down to this one and American Mike. The latter is way too short given the nature of the race but I'd back The Goffer at a third of the odds to get involved on best efforts and at this track I think he will bounce back under Jody McGarvey with first time blinkers on.

Musical Slave is the other bet for Hobbs and White at Fontwell in the Southern National. Just needs to back up the win here in October and the old boy will pick up another pot off this lowly mark.

Enjoy your Sunday.

Today's Info

2.05 Fontwell - Musical Slave 0.5pt Win 9/2 General - laboured effort from the old boy

2.30 Navan - The Goffer 0.5pt e/w - 33/1 General, 5 Places - ran on and is coming back to it

3.30 Cheltenham - Burdett Road 1pt e/w already advised 10/1.... WINNER!!! class act

The Judge

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Today's Info 16th November 2024 - 

Bit of a let down yesterday, nice winner in the opener for us and wait all afternoon for the last....but our second selection went way too free ( having been the opposite last time ) and didn't get competitive. It's going to come together soon for her, and most importantly for us. 

The Jump season proper is always signalled by this weekend and let's get cracking.

We kick off with the 1.10pm and Tony Martin's Read To Return is surely back to finish what they started 12m ago in this race when left way too much to do as fav and the explanations and excuses ran into a couple of paragraphs. Finian Maguire has the leg up today, if staying in touch here I'd be very keen on the 7yo picking them up on the hill. It looked a perfect prep under Derek O'Connor at Punchestown last month and I'd expect a big run is on the cards.

We are already on In Excelsis Deo for the Paddy Power Gold Cup and off 143 I'd be shocked if they can't get involved. Only a shell like 6yo you can forgive the Galway Plate run completely and Bryan Carver ( super rider ) will just need to ensure they aren't too far off what will be a fast clip up top. Jumping is good, but it's concentration that sometimes drops so pieces and a good couple of leaps early and we will be in business. Watch the penny drop with him up the hill each time he has met it here before and if he gets a clear path he will hit the line very hard!

A slight concern now we are at race day is the Jonny Burke switch to Hartur d'Arc which I think is a mistake or unavoidable perhaps....plus the appearance of Protektorat, who if winning this off 12st wouldn't be a surprise given he is far and away the class act and has improved so much since trying to land this before. I'll be having pennies on the latter and a F/C with the Deo...

I don't fancy Doyen Quest in the 2.55pm at all, stepping up in trip or not this looks too tough, and priced like we've seen the evidence already.

Gowel Road might feel like a veteran at this stage but peaking is a nicer and more correct term for the Twiston-Davies charge and he should be able to handle 12st and a whipping to the majority of this field if his last run is repeated. Given that was his first spin since March, he'll likely step forward for it. Looks a terrific each way play and I hope he is grinding away in front at the bend, and then the last and all the way to the line under Sam.

Now if we want Tony Martin to deliver on the card it is not with Hamsiyann who looks like a blot from blot land wrapped in bubble wrap at 3.30pm. It's not missed of course, check the market, but I want to take them on with one who is massively overpriced as a result.

Champagne Twist is a graded horse, not quite sure how high the 6yo will go this year but it should be a good season in much better contests than this. Was a ready winner at Sandown in March for the EBF Finale but at Aintree when looking for another big one and sent off fav, was looked after once clattering a hurdle 3 from home. This gelding is tough though and if Hamsiyann is not the golden goose, this will take a hell of a lot of beating for Ben Pauling and Benny Jones.

Enjoy the racing, a small e/w lucky 15 and a great day in store - back tomorrow to tell you why Burdett Road will win the Greatwood.

Today's Info

Cheltenham

1.10 - Read To Return 0.5pt e/w - 5/1 General - flattened out up the hill

2.20 - In Excelsis Deo - 1pt e/w already advised Ante Post - fell 4 out, would have gone v close

2.55 - Gowel Road 0.75pt e/w - 6/1 General - huge run in 2nd to Doyen!

3.30 - Champagne Twist 0.75pt e/w - 7/1 General - Fell

The Judge

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Today's Info 15th November 2024

First day of the November meeting arrives and a lack of rain makes for some small fields still.

We keep kicking though and two horses I want to back are Double Powerful and Letterston Lily and they bookend the card nicely.

Double Powerful slammed Jilaijone last week and runs under a penalty for it. The Pipe horse was a serious punt for us, and connections it seems, at the October meeting. It's a fair bet that the new mark of 118 is still a little shy of 5yo's ability and Dylan Johnston should be relishing a go here bidding for a third win on him since the start of October. Interesting to see what's still under the hood in better company and hopefully there is more than enough to score.

We backed Letterston Lily at the October meeting and they have got the wheels back on for this. She jumped scratchy that day, came from the rear and hit the line well. All fine after an unseat the time before. She has plenty more to come and the pieces go on to help with the concentration, I expect a big run.

Mister Coffey is a big big favourite of mine, I'd love to see him win the X Country race and I suspect he will with the concession given from Conflated, whilst Springwell Bay should take the Novice race and should be shorter than 13/8 to do so. 

The wonderful Jonbon could lap them or he might only do enough but it's up to him how close he lets anyone else get to himself and Nico in the feature.

Today's Info

1.10pm Cheltenham - Double Powerful 0.75pt Win - 4/1 General  - WINNER!!! does this nicely under a wonderful ride

4.00pm Cheltenham - Letterston Lily 0.75pt e/w -  11/2 General, 5 Places - sadly it looks like it might just be no fun for her at the moment, poor effort

The Judge

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Today's Info 13th November 2024

Two stand out bets at Bangor on Wednesday in the shape of Shan Blue and Might I.

The former was lined up, or in the process of being one of the Skelton plots for the Festival in the Ultima after being warmed up accordingly following some unfortunate career breaks. This assignment is unlikely to have been planned with any less enthusiasm and they will look to veteran contests and weak stocked handicaps afterwards. I expect it will be well backed from the opening shows this evening.

Might I is super talented, the Fry yard are ready to rock early it seems - bodes well for the weekend and our ante post dip with In Excelsis Deo on Saturday!

They will too have bigger hopes than picking up this race but a really nice starting point to get confidence and a boost into the horse. I would be surprised if a clear round doesn't result in victory.

Today's Info 

1.25pm Bangor - Shan Blue 0.75pt e/w - 9/2 General - huge drift before the off 4th

3.35pm Bangor - Might I 0.75pt e/w - 9/2 General - WINNER! stays on best to score..

The Judge

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Today's Info 9th November 2024

Busy day today, great racing and despite some smaller fields with trainers concerned over the ground, expect that bodes well for racing to come with plenty to come out over the coming weeks.

It's the golden highway to Christmas with each weekend offering something special.

What are the bets???  ....Ok here we go.

A few flyers in here. Ex Mullins talking horse Ganapathi can't get much lower in the weights, caught the eye without popping them out on return and is in a muck race at Kelso at 12.42pm. If coming forward just a little is capable of getting involved and if not, well then may never do so again.

At Doncaster I'll be keeping one eye on Korker deserves a win but most of Karl Burke's are more than done for the year yet they have a little go again with this talented rogue. He could pop up at 1.20pm and is not a 10s shot to do so.

There is a strong bet on the card with Valvano who could be streets ahead against the elders in the November Handicap and has to be backed. Inexperience might be an issue but looks perfect for this and is rightly fav, but nowhere near short enough in my view. Some layers are paying 7 places, I'd be surprised if seven horses can still see backside of Valvano, let alone Hector Crouch by the end of the race.

Ok now to the proper jumps and the Badger Beer looks set up for the smart and ridiculously consistent Forward Plan to come forward again. Bar the pensioners, comfortably the best horse in the field and has more to come this term. I'm a little concerned about The Big Breakaway deciding to remember how good he is but if he doesn't then I expect Anthony Honeyball is in for a good day with this Doncaster loving 8yo fired at a big pot.

At Aintree I know Frero Banbou doesn't like winning but it will be hard to not put the head in front here for Venetia Williams if running any sort of normal level. Ran well last year in it, if ready, and should be with the yard perky already then can get that 1 in the form figures. Surely goes off a tight fav at post time.

Finally, I know the order of this write up will have messed with some heads, forgive me! Guard The Moon is simply stand out at 1.30pm on the same card. Some dodge pots to face, Sam getting light to drive it home and recent form looks serious. Will be very hard to beat under these conditions.

Busy, working out the best way to have it all roll onto Valvano. 

Go steady and enjoy it, luck always needed.

Today's Info

12.42 Kelso - Ganapathi 0.5pt e/w  - 12/1 General - PU, never at it

1.20 Doncaster - Korker 0.5pt e/w - 10/1 General  - well backed, didn't fire at all

1.30 Aintree - Guard The Moon - 1.5pt Win - 5/2 General - 2nd, not sure how this didn't win!

2.40 Aintree - Frero Banbou 0.75pt e/w - 11/2 General - a horror ride, travelled to the front all over the field, reigned in and spat out the dummy

3.30 Wincanton - Forward Plan 0.75pt e/w - 15/2 General - placed and whole field was taught a lesson by the legend Al Dancer

                             - The Big Breakaway 0.25pt e/w - 25/1 General - not involved

3.45 Doncaster - Valvano 1.5pt e/w - 6/1 General, 5 Places - placed, just didn't quite follow through from a confident ride

The Judge

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Today's Info 1st November 2024

We saw some nice horses already this weekend, the Gordon Elliott brigade destroying races at Down Royal and likely the same today. The domination in just a handful of yards, the seemingly agreed absence of others so targets get their penalties in sadly means making any attempt but to just punt the odds on and building poor man multis seem thankless, but also brainless. 

Bit more like it across the other tracks on Saturday and we will be getting involved.

Don't Tell Su looks the one to kick it all off in the opener at Ascot. Would perhaps have been a winner on final start last April but for a bump and is likely to find plenty of improvement this term for the Nicholls camp. I doubt Freddie Gingell(bells) will be waiting for rivals to catch up when setting this one alight and the 6yo should be too strong for the field given form in the book.

I might chance Bad in the second race on chase debut, but I'm not sure I'd advise anyone following, no doubt this perfectly named Ben Pauling inmate will find a way to shirk it, but if he ever decides to be on best behaviour this would be a simple assignment. 

On the assumption the potentially smart Madara is warming up and not quite match fit then Master Chewy is a knock out for the 2.05pm Premier Handicap Chase.  Proper horse unlucky a couple of times last year in the very best company and can be part of a potentially very good day for Tommy Bellamy, 

In similar circumstances, Grade 1 type versus handicappers, Tom has the leg up on Chianti Classico who if fit should be able to allow Bellamy to do his best David Bass impression on the 7yo and just head for home from the first fence in the Sodexo Gold Cup at 3.45pm.

Simple stuff perhaps all this but there is a decent price stab on the card before it with Tapley at 3.15pm where the market looks to have ignored Suzy Smith's runner despite having a belting chance of following up a smart Plumpton win just 12 days ago.

Suzy entered this in the Greatwood quite rightly, and they have a heap of potentially on the rise younger ones to face here but the mark is earned and still very competitive, whilst the 7lbs off from Elizabeth Gayle is a huge plus and the grey is certain to run a big race.

They will catch a few napping on their returns I hope and an e/w play looks solid. 

A small e/w Lucky 15 well worth adding to the mixer. 

Wetherby looks like a lovely day for Luccia and Bravemansgame to get underway with wins, Gerri Colombe in Ireland along with Found A Fifty, I can't decide if it's great or boring. We want puzzles to solve....they will appear in time. So for now...

Enjoy the racing!

Today's Info

12.55 Ascot - Don't Tell Su 0.75pt Win - 7/2 General ( 9/2 in places ) - NR

2.05 Ascot - Master Chewy 1pt Win - 3/1 General - shortened up at the finish rather than stamp authority...

3.15 Ascot - Tapley 0.5pt e/w - 12/1 General ( 4 Places ) - poor run, never able to go the gallop

3.45 Ascot - Chianti Classico 0.75pt Win - 11/4 General  - WINNER!! does exactly as hoped and led from the first the post....

The Judge

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Today's Info 26th October 2024 - 

Good day yesterday and with a bit more luck we might have nicked another winner, but all selections ran well, hopefully some collected on an e/w lucky to go with it.

Cheltenham again although I will admit to a small bet on Jer Batt at Doncaster in the 2.05pm Handicap - looks set to run big for Oisin Murphy, peaking with conditions to suit.

I'll be sick at 1.10pm if Weveallbeencaught revives in pieces for Christian Williams but he just has never quite hit his mark over fences yet, talent and relentless galloping ability, a small saver only for me in a race where I fancy Lord Of Thunder and Guard Your Dreams are shorter than deserved.

The one I want to be with is Will Carver for Nicky Henderson. Not sure he shouldn't be closer to favoritism and would be shorter at least if not hitting one when about to bolt up at Uttoxeter in the summer. That would make him 2 from 2 over fences, a serious travelling type who looks set for a good year, this former smart hurdler will not have hit the ceiling yet and although he is already 9, very low mileage done. Underestimated in the market for sure.

Pepe Le Moko combines a few of my favourite things in the 2.20pm, sweet travelling, powerful and a slick jumper stepping up in trip with a low weight. However David Noonan isn't the most aggressive around here, and I do feel he will need to be brave or the race might be gone with the likes of smart Broadway Boy attacking up top.

I can't resist tough at the odds, the 6yo is going places. Broadway Boy is just about backable at 3s and I will cover with a F/C too.

The Pertemps is a cracker at 2.55pm and whilst The Wallpark seems hot with all and sundry the other Irish runner Al Gasparo might be lobbed in to score. It's a step up in distance, Danny Mullins takes over to set the fractions and I am going to keep tabs on the Letterson Lily form for a while yet. Performing so well at inadequate trips you'd be inclined to think what's to come could be more than enough to land this and then you'd imagine the finale would be the plan ( I know it's very early to be thinking about that...)

We will be looking at Aintree tomorrow. Another small e/w lucky with the Donny nag thrown in....Good to have great racing, enjoy your day.

Today's Info - 

Cheltenham 

1.10 - Will Carver 0.5pt e/w - 8/1 General, 4 places - poor effort, the saver also did what he does...

2.20 - Pepe Le Moko 0.5pt e/w - 8/1 General, 4 places - needs a brave ride, can improve a lot for it

2.55 - Al Gasparo 0.5pt e/w - 6/1 General, 4 Places - flat as anything here

The Judge

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Today's Info 25th October 2024

Four horses at Cheltenham today for us to focus on.

The first is Letterston Lily who is a 4yo with a big upside who can bounce back from a recent unseat at the first flight earlier this month to resume progress here. In The Air is the sexy profile one and has stepped forward in poor early season company but the Bowen's aimed a bit higher and with good reason. A busy summer was rewarded and then a smart third to stablemate Flying Fortune at Worcester was another leap forward. Sets the standard for me.

Calico can take the 2m handicap chase, it can be a tough watch with this 8yo but first time back is as good a time as any to chance that the Skeltons have an eye on the prize. I'm a big fan of Matata and I expect them to fight this out, as does the market. 

Triple Trade is interesting and can hit the frame in behind especially if the front two make it ridiculous up top, Calico is just that bit more tractable now for Harry Skelton and he can save enough to attack from the last.

Early prices disappeared when put in too big earlier in the week but Strictlyadancer looks sure to be heavily involved in the amateur jockeys handicap chase for Christian Williams. Atalanta Brave and Ceanndana look the dangers but after a very likeable spin at Chepstow this month the 10yo still has what it takes and a smart pilot up will be hard to beat at his favourite haunt.

The Pipe yard have been landing a few touches already, Jilaijone might just be another well executed first time back charge from them in the finale. This time last year was keeping much better company and will appreciate the better ground on return. Looks to have no excuses.

Well worth a small e/w lucky - good days racing ahead.

Today's Info - 

Cheltenham

1.15 - Letterston Lily 1pt e/w - 9/2 General, 4 places - placed finishing well from rear - loads more to come...

2.25 - Calico 0.5pt Win - 7/2 General - WINNER!! exactly as planned to come home fast from the last!

3.35 - Strictlyadancer 0.5pt Win - 5/1 General - placed, ran well but not good enough to win

4.45  - Jilaijone 0.5pt e/w - 7/1 General, 4 places  - placed and a good way to wrap up the day, heavily punted in the end...

The Judge

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Today's Info 23rd October 2024

Just one horse of interest today at Fontwell who looks decidedly overpriced.

The sweet travelling Lady Salvador is surely ready to run a personal best this afternoon in the finale for Jim and Suzi Best. Jumping has been a slight issue when upping the revs but went well here on handicap debut, needs a bit of cut in the ground and was again catching the eye at this venue for a long way on return last month.

I can't imagine they will find a better chance and with no weight, smart pilot taking off a few pounds more it's a decent wager for midweek action.

Today's Info - 

Fontwell 4.45pm - Lady Salvador 0.75pt e/w - 7/1 General 3 Places - withdrawn at the start! NR

The Judge

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Today's Info 21/10/24

 - Ante Post Cheltenham November Meeting

Two bets advised for the big pots at Cheltenham in November.

Saturday 16th November - Paddy Power Gold Cup

In Excelsis Deo 1pt e/w  - 10/1 General, 4 places

Sunday 17th November - Greatwood Handicap Hurdle

Burdett Road 1pt e/w - 10/1 General, 4 places

1pt e/w Double

The Judge

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Today's Info - 12th October 2024

Nice to start the return with a winner, good to be back etc etc.

Saturday's are what it is all about of course. It's Cesarewitch day at Newmarket and if I mark the occasion with a small interest, it would be Sir Mark Prescott's charge Trooper Bisdee.  

The free going, head down 4yo may potentially have to sit and suffer rather than try and run them into the ground, with all the Irish runners invading and going from stall 5 it's clearly a very difficult task but I would forgive the last two runs tactically, as would the trainer apparently and at least mark them up. At rag odds and multiple extra place concessions on offer everywhere it's a small bet on the flat for me.

Right on the proper stuff at Chepstow.

If Mighty Bandit is going to live anywhere near to his original promise and then the expensive price tag on departure from Gordon Elliott it would be likely that begins here at Chepstow on Saturday. Been super busy on the level for Warren Greatrex and if not troubling the front end in a poor contest ( Liari aside ) will be some questions asked all round as to alternative career options.

James Bowen can be ultra aggressive on him, he will love ground, track and has guaranteed fitness. Should be all engines engaged. Overpriced to get closest or topple the Nicholls runner.

I wonder if Evan Williams expects as much from Patriotik as I do this term. It's a good sign they are straight into such a hot race tackling the Silver Trophy on handicap debut but they have got  in at the bottom, have Isabel Williams to claim a few more pounds off and I fancy a few up their sleeve after getting plenty of racing in at Ffos Las at the back end of last season.

This is arguably ideal conditions, they can set a gallop that suits hopefully and try and catch a few off guard. If it isn't to be on the first day in big school this smart grey will be one to keep an eye on but at the prices here well worth chancing. 

Doyen Quest, an obvious one in the market and Tune In A Box, similarly noticed of course, are pretty much equals on the book, not the market and I think Patriotik will step forward a lot.

The handicap chase at 4pm is a belter, but two stand out whilst others don't appeal at all. The King Of Ryhope would need to be much better than I think he could be to handle these and is a big swerve at the odds. Il Ridoto, a horse I adore is very much likely to need at least one spin before being of interest and is also too short a price whilst Jetoile and GA Law look to hold exceptional claims from the rest of the field.

The weight GA Law has to carry is a concern if it gets any wetter underfoot but class counts for plenty and I doubt them have headed here for a simple pipe opener. Jetoile is weighted to match GA Law here with the added bonus of it being at Chepstow, the 9yo just loves it here.

I'd back both and a FC - they can hopefully scrap it out, I have them stand out clear.

Final bet on a cracking day should be on Henry De Bromhead's decision to run Toss Again in the Native River handicap chase at 4.35pm. I'd be a big fan of Stolen Silver who has a good claimer on too, this would be a great starting point, but I doubt it's the plan with some bigger assignments that might benefit from a run here without going all in for the win. 

Early market moves like last years winner and why not but I think we will see support for Toss Again who was smart but still embryonic last term and never really got going after the summer with an over faced spin at Cheltenham against very smart foes was followed up with similar in listed class over too short at Punchestown. What we got at Ballinrobe in the Mayo National was back to business and the Galway Plate, well it does what it does and can be safely ignored.

A mark of 138 is very manageable and there is going to be a lot more to come, this is the right sort of company for now and with confidence I think Toss Again will improve to go back to tougher waters.

It's open, a few sleepers in the field so we will play each way for sure but I hope Darragh O'Keefe has a luck first visit to the track.

Good luck all,

The Judge.

Today's Info - 12th October 2024

Chepstow 2.10 - Mighty Bandit 0.5pt Win - 10/1 General  - poor effort...

Chepstow 3.20 - Patriotik 1pt e/w - 12/1 General 5 Places - v v good run for place money, eyes on next few starts - has lots to play with off this mark

Chepstow 4.00 - Jetoile 0.75pt Win 6/1 Gen / GA Law 0.5pt Win 6/1 Gen - 0.25pt RF - 2nd and last, very off colour run from Jetoile..

Chepstow 4.35 - Toss Again 0.75pt e/w - 13/2 General 4 Places - well backed but lost a shoe, stopped quickly and may turn out next weekend now

Newmarket 3.40 - Trooper Bisdee 0.25pt e/w - 25/1 General 6 Places - huge run, didn't last home in what will turn out to be a dark day for racing if they DQ the winner two weeks later..

The Judge

(Published 11.30pm 11th October )

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Today's Info - 11th October 2024 

Chepstow kicks us off and two horses on the card appeal strongly at early prices.

Isaac Des Obeaux should be shorter for chase debut at 4.25pm and this will have been the day Harry Cobden would have been waiting for since first legging up at the same track for his rules debut in 2022, when landing a very modest 2m bumper.

The anything he did over hurdles was a bonus brigade will be impressed by what he did achieve but I was a bit disappointed and felt they could have rolled the dice in a big one again despite finding conditions just too much at Haydock in G2 company. 

He's a made in a factory, high spec, all the trimmings chaser, will be way too good for a field like this and so you are only betting against fitness and a good round over fences. 3s and 11/4 are way off the mark so a decent bet to kick start the service with a horse we will likely have plenty of time for this season.

The other of interest is Washington, who runs at 5pm in a ok looking class 3 hurdle. He must have had Olly Murphy on something stronger than tea and biscuits whilst in his care as the engine this horse appear to possess would laugh at this grade if you knew he wasn't a disaster to keep interested.

Harry Derham will have been whispering sweet nothings in his ear and I expect this to be the hipsters and the professionals bet of the day on the card. Wind op, change of scenery again, he popped into Paul Nicholls for a sleep over on the way, but surely even if it's just until he realises what they are up to he will pick this up.

Advice - 

4.25 Chepstow - Isaac Des Obeaux 1pt Win - 11/4 General - the market knew...9/2 and way way better than this!

5.00 Chepstow - Washington 1pt Win - 13/8 General - WINNER! smashed in the betting, and again over the last, just about kidded home in front...phew.

The Judge

(Published 8.15pm 10th Oct )

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